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1Can you remember what you ate yesterday? If asked, most people will be able to give a vague description of their main
2meals: breakfast, lunch, dinner. But can you be sure you've noted every snack bar in your car, or every handful of nuts
3at your desk? Most people will have a feeling that they've missed something out.
4We originally had this suspicion back in 2016, puzzled by the fact that national statistics showed calorie consumption
5falling dramatically over past decades. We found reliable evidence that people were drastically under-reporting what
6they ate.
7Now the O?ce for National Statistics has confirmed that we are consuming 50% more calories than our national statistics
8claim.
9Why is this happening? We can point to at least three potential causes. One is the rise in obesity levels itself.There
10is good evidence that under-reporting rates are much higher for obese people. The main reason for this seems to be that
11obese people simply consume more food, and thus have more to remember.
12Another cause is that the proportion of people who are trying to lose weight has been increasing over time. People who
13want to lose weight are around 10 percentage points more likely to under-report their eating-regardless of whether they
14are overweight or not. This may be driven partly by self-deception or “wishful thinking”.
15The final potential cause is an increase in snacking and eating out over recent decades — both in terms of how often
16they happen and how much they contribute to our overall energy intake. Again, there is evidence that food consumed out
17of the home is one of the most poorly recorded categories in surveys.
18So, what's the message conveyed? For statistics, we should invest in more accurate measurement options. For policy, we
19need to focus on options that make it easy for people to eat fewer calories. If people do not know how much they are
20eating, it can be really hard for them to stick to a diet. Also, we should be looking for new ways to ensure what they
21eat wouldn't have much impact on their waistlines. If this works, it won't matter if they can't remember what they ate
22yesterday.
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